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People will kill OKC and GM Sam Presti for the rest of time for the Harden deal, even though a) Harden, who supposedly professed never wanting to be The Man before the Draft, wound up being traded to Houston, which lured him with promises he would be, uh, The Man. Has anyone noticed Harden passing up open shots in the last three years, or has he gone buck wild with the rock, as he should, given his...talent? (That word again!) That would have never happened in OKC playing alongside Durant and Westbrook, unless the Thunder traded Westbrook and kept Harden. (That is an argument for another column.)
And, b) if the Thunder had paid Harden in 2012, it surely would not have been able to give Serge Ibaka the very reasonable (for the Thunder) $49 million extension over four years it doled out in 2013.
And, c) the cap in 2012 was $58 million. Three years later, it's going to be $70 million, and heading toward Pluto in the years to come with the new TV money kicking in. The world of NBA finances has been turned on its ear, with the combination of the 2011 CBA and the 2016 infusion of television cash that will make every team bullish.
With the tax threshold at $84.7 million, OKC still believes it could get under the line if it absolutely had to, or at least closer to the line if it wants to. Remember, the luxury tax is based on a team's roster and cap commitments at the end of a season, not the beginning.
The Thunder has been diligently shopping players like Perry Jones and Steve Novak, and has a cap hold of $950,000 on 2014 first-round pick Josh Huestis; if those three aren't on the roster at season's end, and the Thunder takes no salary back for them, OKC quickly shaves $6.7 million from its total, cutting a potential luxury tax payment currently projected at $26 million almost in half. It's not likely the Thunder comes to camp with 15 guaranteed contracts (and that doesn't include Huestis).
But even if the Thunder pays tax for 2015-16, which would be a second straight season for OKC as a taxpayer, it can avoid the dreaded repeater taxes by staying out of the tax in 2016-17 and 2017-18. After this season, Novak and guard D.J. Augustin come off the cap and don't have to be re-signed; the Thunder has club options on Dion Waiters and Jones, and Anthony Morrow's $3.4 million for 2016-17 is non-guaranteed. If OKC opted not to bring any of those five back, it would still be well under the threshold even if Durant signed a new deal starting at $30 million.
The current cap projection for '16-'17 is $89 million, with a tax threshold at $108 million; the '17-'18 cap is currently projected at $108 million, with a corresponding projected tax threshold of $127 (!) million. It will be next to impossible, even with Durant taking 30 or 35 percent of the cap (depending on how he and his reps play the next two summers), for OKC to blow through that high a threshold.