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The Thunder has been diligently shopping players like Perry Jones and Steve Novak, and has a cap hold of $950,000 on 2014 first-round pick Josh Huestis; if those three aren't on the roster at season's end, and the Thunder takes no salary back for them, OKC quickly shaves $6.7 million from its total, cutting a potential luxury tax payment currently projected at $26 million almost in half. It's not likely the Thunder comes to camp with 15 guaranteed contracts (and that doesn't include Huestis).
But even if the Thunder pays tax for 2015-16, which would be a second straight season for OKC as a taxpayer, it can avoid the dreaded repeater taxes by staying out of the tax in 2016-17 and 2017-18. After this season, Novak and guard D.J. Augustin come off the cap and don't have to be re-signed; the Thunder has club options on Dion Waiters and Jones, and Anthony Morrow's $3.4 million for 2016-17 is non-guaranteed. If OKC opted not to bring any of those five back, it would still be well under the threshold even if Durant signed a new deal starting at $30 million.
The current cap projection for '16-'17 is $89 million, with a tax threshold at $108 million; the '17-'18 cap is currently projected at $108 million, with a corresponding projected tax threshold of $127 (!) million. It will be next to impossible, even with Durant taking 30 or 35 percent of the cap (depending on how he and his reps play the next two summers), for OKC to blow through that high a threshold.
And no one knows what a new CBA, coming after what seems like an inevitable lockout in the summer of 2017, will bring. For those reasons alone, going all in for the next two years, even at $70 million for Kanter, makes sense.
It's obvious the Thunder didn't get near enough from Houston for Harden in retrospect. But OKC did wind up getting a first-rounder from the Rockets out of the deal that it used to draft Steven Adams—a young, defensive-first center who should be the ying to Kanter's offensive yang. Having both for at least a couple of years, alongside Ibaka (who played just nine games with Kanter before being lost for the season) will give the Thunder all kinds of big man flexibility.
OKC's argument is that it never would be able to add a player like Kanter in free agency, given its commitments to Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka. If not for the trade last February that brought Kanter and Novak from Oklahoma City, and Augustin and Singler from Detroit, the Thunder would have been very limited in its ability to bolster its bench.
2) Today's ceiling is tomorrow's floor.
If Kanter had signed a one-year deal this year and been an unrestricted free agent next summer, when the cap is projected to go up to $90 million, what do you think he would have gotten on the open market? Would another guy averaging 18.7 points and 11 rebounds a night, as Kanter did over 22 games with the Thunder, make more than $70 million over four?
Five years ago, Golden State committed $80 million over six seasons--$13.3 million per year—to acquire David Lee in a sign-and-trade deal with the Knicks. Lee, like Kanter, was an offense-first, defense-optional big man. And Lee was a key cog in the Warriors' offense for the first three years of his deal, before the Splash Brothers took over and Lee became expendable.
OKC was talking with Kanter about a four-year, $60 million deal--$14.5 million per year. That average is precisely what Lee's per year average would be now, allowing for inflation, if he'd signed his deal this summer. Agents get paid to find as much money for their clients in the system as possible; give Kanter's agent, Max Ergul, credit for sifting through the teams and getting $10 million more for his guy.