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If Kanter had signed a one-year deal this year and been an unrestricted free agent next summer, when the cap is projected to go up to $90 million, what do you think he would have gotten on the open market? Would another guy averaging 18.7 points and 11 rebounds a night, as Kanter did over 22 games with the Thunder, make more than $70 million over four?
Five years ago, Golden State committed $80 million over six seasons--$13.3 million per year—to acquire David Lee in a sign-and-trade deal with the Knicks. Lee, like Kanter, was an offense-first, defense-optional big man. And Lee was a key cog in the Warriors' offense for the first three years of his deal, before the Splash Brothers took over and Lee became expendable.
OKC was talking with Kanter about a four-year, $60 million deal--$14.5 million per year. That average is precisely what Lee's per year average would be now, allowing for inflation, if he'd signed his deal this summer. Agents get paid to find as much money for their clients in the system as possible; give Kanter's agent, Max Ergul, credit for sifting through the teams and getting $10 million more for his guy.
And OKC doesn't need Kanter to be one of its main scorers, the way the Warriors needed Lee when they got him. What it does need him to do on offense is exactly what people banged Scott Brooks about for years—provide some diversity to the Thunder's halfcourt attack, so it no longer devolves into Durant and Westbrook one-on-four sorties against loaded-up defenses.
But that proves Kanter is overpaid, you can (and no doubt, many will) argue. His role on this team doesn't warrant that kind of financial outlay.
You may be right. But if the cap indeed is set at $108 million in two years, what looks ridiculous today will be commonplace. Every free agent center of substance the last two summers has gotten no worse than $12 million a year from their respective teams (Marcin Gortat, Nikola Pekovic and Omer Asik). Tyson Chandler got $13 million per from Phoenix; Robin Lopez $13.5 per from the Knicks. At the top of the scale are Marc Gasol and DeAndre Jordan ($22 million apiece per year from the Grizzlies and Clippers) and Brook Lopez ($20 million annually from Brooklyn). Kanter, younger than all of them, is toward the high end, but isn't the highest.
3) This is the beginning of Kanter's prime, not the end.
Yes, Kanter's defensive numbers are horrific, among the worst ever recorded for a starting big man. Utah's defensive numbers went north with a bullet after the Jazz traded Kanter and gave Rudy Gobert the starting job in the middle; OKC's defensive numbers cratered with Kanter on the floor.
Before the trade, the Thunder's defensive rating was 100.7, 10th-best in the NBA. After the Feb. 19 trade, OKC's defensive rating the rest of the season 107.7, 29th-best in the league. Before the trade, according to NBA.com stats, OKC was first in the league in defending opponent shots at the rim, allowing just 54 percent shooting on such shots. After the trade, opponents shot 60.2 percent at the rim the rest of the season, 21st in the league. Opponents shot 34 percent against the Thunder before the trade on shots 5-9 feet from the basket; 43.8 percent on such shots after the trade. And on and on.
Was Kanter to blame for some—maybe a lot—of the defensive breakdown? Sure. But the Thunder was without its two best interior defenders for a lot of those games—Adams missed eight games with a broken hand, and Ibaka missed most of the last six weeks of the season after undergoing arthroscopic knee surgery.
The hope is that having either Adams or Ibaka on the floor next to Kanter on a full-time basis going forward will help cover up some of his defensive shortcomings. And, for $70 million, Kanter can work a little harder and more effectively at that end going forward. He's got to be accountable now for his play at both ends of the floor.
Which leads us to 4) Who are we kidding with all this Kanter talk? OKC's going to go as far as a healthy Durant and Westbrook take them.
The Thunder's new core group going forward could be formidable, with good health and if new coach Billy Donovan is up to snuff: Durant, Westbrook, Ibaka, Kanter, Adams, Singler, rookie Cameron Payne, second-year big Mitch McGary, Nick "Scoop" Collison and guard Andre Roberson, who is a cost-efficient rotation guy worth keeping. And, despite taking a huge financial plunge Sunday, it will a rotation that doesn't break the bank in the oil-rich 405.